Home > Irish politics > Paddy Power Final seat tally

Paddy Power Final seat tally

Below are the final estimations of seats based on constituency betting from Paddy Power. When compared with the estimation at the beginning of the campaign, there has been a clear shift to Fine Gael and a notable further shift from Fianna Fáil, which the Greens could benefit from in Dublin North and Dublin South.

This gives a final prediction from Paddy Power, with a comparison to 2007, of 78.5 Fine Gael (+27.5), 33 Labour (+13), 22.5 Fianna Fáil (-55.5), 14 Sinn Féin (+10), 4 United Left Alliance (+4), 2 Green (-4) and 12 Independents (+7).

In any case, how accurate this is will stand as an indicator of how reliable a measure Paddy Power is for these purposes.

Between all constituencies, the seats estimated by this measure fall as follows:

Constituency FG Lab FF SF ULA Green Oth
Carlow–Kilkenny 3 1 1        
Cavan–Monaghan 2   1 2      
Clare 2   1       1
Cork East 2 1 1        
Cork North-Central 1 2   1      
Cork North-West 2   1        
Cork South-Central 3 1 1        
Cork South-West 2 1          
Donegal North-East 1   1 1      
Donegal South-West 1   1 1      
Dublin Central 1 1   1     1
Dublin Mid-West 2   1      
Dublin North 1 1     1 1  
Dublin North-Central 2           1
Dublin North-East 1 1   1      
Dublin North-West 1 1   1      
Dublin South 2 1       1 1
Dublin South-Central 1 2   1 1    
Dublin South-East 2 2          
Dublin South-West 2 1   1      
Dublin West 1 1 1   1    
Dún Laoghaire 2 2          
Galway East 2   1       1
Galway West 2   1       2
Kerry North–Limerick West 1 1   1      
Kerry South 2           1
Kildare North 2 1         1
Kildare South 1 1 1        
Laois–Offaly 2   2 1      
Limerick 2   1        
Limerick City 2 1 1        
Longford–Westmeath 2 1 1        
Louth 2 1 1 1      
Mayo 4          
Meath East 2 1          
Meath West 2   1        
Roscommon–Leitrim South 2           1
Sligo–Leitrim North 2   1        
Tipperary North 1 1         1
Tipperary South 1       1   1
Waterford 2 1        
Wexford 2.5 1 0.5      
Wicklow 3 2          
TOTAL 78.5 33 22.5 14 4 2 12

These figures include Séamus Kirk returned automatically for Fianna Fáil in Louth.

Advertisements
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: