Home > Irish politics > Dublin in 2011 with Boundaries from 2012 Constituency Commission

Dublin in 2011 with Boundaries from 2012 Constituency Commission

Here’s be my estimation of how the seats in Dublin at the last election would have gone under the proposed boundaries by the Constituency Commission released today.

The purpose of this is really to show the notional result for future comparisons, rather the counterfactual of exactly how the last election would have been fought, as the boundaries would have changed party behaviour, but I’ve made a few assumptions about personalities in different constituencies.

In particular, these include:

  • Paschal Donohoe to have stood for Dublin North-West rather than Dublin Central, having originally been elected to Dublin City Council for Cabra–Glasnevin, and Glasnevin now in DNW;
  • Alex White rather than Eamonn Maloney to have been the second Labour TD in Dublin South-West, to cover both ends of the constituency, and
  • Peter Mathews not to have been selected for Dublin Rathdown, a three-seater rather than a five-seater.
Constituency TDs
Dublin Bay North Tommy Broughan (Lab)
Richard Bruton (FG)
Terence Flanagan (FG)
Finian McGrath (Ind)
Aodhán Ó Riordáin (Lab)
Dublin Bay South Lucinda Creighton (FG)
Kevin Humphreys (Lab)
Eoghan Murphy (FG)
Ruairi Quinn (Lab)
Dublin Central Joe Costello (Lab)
Mary Lou McDonald (SF)
Maureen O’Sullivan (Ind)
Dublin Fingal Clare Daly (SP)
Alan Farrell (FG)
Darragh O’Brien (FF)
James Reilly (FG)
Brendan Ryan (Lab)
Dublin Mid-West Robert Dowds (Lab)
Frances Fitzgerald (FG)
Derek Keating (FG)
Joanna Tuffy (Lab)
Dublin North-West Paschal Donohoe (FG)
Dessie Ellis (SF)
Róisín Shortall (Lab)
Dublin Rathdown Olivia Mitchell (FG)
Shane Ross (Ind)
Alan Shatter (FG)
Dublin South-Central Catherine Byrne (FG)
Eric Byrne (Lab)
Joan Collins (PBP)
Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF)
Dublin South-West Seán Crowe (SF)
Brian Hayes (FG)
Cáit Keane (FG)
Pat Rabbitte (Lab)
Alex White (Lab)
Dublin West Joan Burton (Lab)
Joe Higgins (SP)
Brian Lenihan (FF)
Leo Varadkar (FG)
Dún Laoghaire Seán Barrett (FG)
Richard Boyd Barrett (PBP)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab)
Mary Mitchell O’Connor (FG)

The result from Dublin in 2011 was 18 Labour, 17 Fine Gael, 4 Sinn Féin, 2 Socialist Party, 2 People Before Profit, 1 Fianna Fáil and 3 Independents.

On this projection, the result with the revised boundaries would have been 17 Fine Gael, 14 Labour, 4 Sinn Féin, 2 Fianna Fáil, 2 Socialist Party, 2 People Before Profit and 3 Independents.

Quite a different result in all. But let me know if you think I’ve estimated anything poorly, or just generally overestimated how beneficial this would have been to Fine Gael as against Labour.

  1. Vincent Treanor
    22 June, 2012 at 2:51 am

    Dunlaoghaire – Are you sure RBB would still have made it? What bit comes over from Dublin South? Would have done Bacik or Hanafin any good?
    Eamon Ryan is buried. But he was probaly a no hoper whatever happened 😦

  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: